Variabilidad climática y malaria estudio regional: municipio Sifontes, estado Bolívar, Venezuela
The objective of this paper is to carry out a comparative analysis between the incidence of monthly cases of malaria with the South Oscillation Index (SOI), in the Sifontes municipality located in Bolivar, Venezuela, during 1995-2006. Monthly records from the SOI (It characterizes El Niño/South Osci...
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2009
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| On-line přístup: | http://hdl.handle.net/10872/5015 |
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| Shrnutí: | The objective of this paper is to carry out a comparative analysis between the incidence of monthly cases of malaria with the South Oscillation Index (SOI), in the Sifontes municipality located in Bolivar, Venezuela, during 1995-2006. Monthly records from the SOI (It characterizes El Niño/South Oscillation: ENSO) and malaria cases incidence for the given study area were used for the analysis. The SOI records were sorted according to their intensity and the Cárdenas classification (2003) (0.64 neutral to >1.5 strong). Analysis of simple correlation were made between series with up to 12 surplus or temporal displacement and the first surplus are set to be more significant. Finally, the autocorrelation results show a higher dependency of the series of malaria incidence (26 periods) and the analysis of crossed correlation suggests that the periodicity of the series is 10 months. The study concluded that the intensities from neutral to moderate of the SOI have an effect (time to respond) of 4 up to 10 months over the incidence of malaria in the area of study. |
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